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Entries in season prediction (1)

Saturday
Sep172011

Let’s Go Buffalo. Bills Season Preview

The Classic Look. The Bills unveiled their new uniforms in June and will be sporting their new look this season

By Patrick Broadwater

One meaningless preseason game.

     That appears to be the final casualty toll of a lockout that flooded the National Football League offseason. The labor dispute between players and owners cast a pall over the draft, threatened training camps, shortened the period in which free agents could shop their services on the open market and generally just wreaked havoc on the NFL’s entire hot stove cottage industry.

     As spring stretched into summer with no deal in place, uncertainty reigned. Fans began mentally preparing themselves for the worst: Would there even be a 2011 season? Ultimately, the two sides broached a compromise over how to share the $9 billion in revenue the league draws each year, as well as a few lesser issues. Though, when you’re talking about $9 billion, everything is a lesser issue.

     The deal didn’t happen soon enough to save this year’s Hall of Fame Game, easily the most expendable of the bloated exhibition season, but it did ensure a full decade’s worth of labor peace. However, there is still some question what the abbreviated camp schedule and free-agent period will mean this season as teams scurry to finalize their rosters and players cram to learn new playbooks and get in game shape by Sept. 11.

     If uncertainty is still the name of the game in the NFL, perhaps no team exemplifies that more than the Buffalo Bills, coming off a strange 4-12 season under first-year head coach Chan Gailey.

     

The Bills weren’t particularly close to winning any of their first five games last year, getting outscored 161-87, but they were a different team for a nine-game stretch after their Week 6 bye. Even though their winless streak reached eight games before they finally broke into the win column, the Bills went 4-5 during an inspired two-month run with three – count ’em, three –overtime losses to AFC playoff teams, including a heartbreaking loss to the Super Bowl-bound Steelers (the infamous Stevie Johnson drop).

     So, which team will the 2011 Bills most resemble – the snakebit ten group that flirted with the NFL’s cellar, or the explosive and opportunistic bunch that put up 514 yards against Baltimore and became the first team in NFL history to win by at least 18 points (a 49-31 pasting of the Bengals) after trailing by 17 or more at the half?

     Hard to tell. But one thing’s for sure. This team will look markedly different. And not just because of yet another uniform redesign. Gone are mainstays Paul Pusluszny, Donte Whitner and Lee Evans. Among the new faces are linebackers Kirk Morrison and Nick Barnett, who was a member of last year’s Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers, and enormous defensive end Marcell Dareus, the No. 3 pick overall this past April.

     “We feel we have upgraded our football team since the end of last year,” said Gailey. “That’s what you do; upgrade your football team every opportunity you get. From last year to this year, we think we have taken the steps to get that done.”

     The Bills hope the addition of Barnett, Morrison and third-rounder Kelvin Sheppard will improve their run defense, which ranked dead last in the NFL last year, giving up 169.6 yards per game. They’ll also count on former Bears and Dolphins head coach Dave Wannestedt, who joined the team as assistant head coach with responsibility for the inside linebackers.

     “The number one priority is for us to be able to come up and stop the run. It’s not necessarily about yards for me. It’s about effectively stopping the run,” Gailey said. “I think that we can line up, hit people and run to the ball the way we 

need to in order to stop the run.”

     Dareus, playing at a very athletic 340 pounds, and Shawne Merriman, who had 17 sacks in 2006 but has been limited just 18 games in the past three seasons because of injuries, should help the Bills pass rush immediately and allow a deep and experienced secondary to improve on their total of 11 interceptions a year ago.

     Offensively, Fred Jackson, who has rushed for 1,989 yards in the past two seasons, should get the bulk

of the touches, but he’ll be pushed by second-year pro C.J. Spiller.

     Ryan Fitzpatrick inherits the starting QB job after throwing for 3,000 yards and 23 TDs in relief of Trent Edwards. He spread the ball around well – eight different players had at least 10 catches last year – but by far his favorite target was Stevie Johnson, whose emergence as both a possession receiver (82 catches) and a deep threat (11 catches of 20+ yards) made Evans expendable.

     Donald Jones, Roscoe Parrish, David Nelson and Marcus Easley will give Fitzpatrick plenty of other options.

    

And speaking of options, Buffalo’s most notable offensive acquisition is Brad Smith, who can line up as a receiver or as a QB in the Wildcat formation, giving the Bills added play-calling flexibility in short-yardage situations.

     “I see him being used in a similar role as I used Kordell (Stewart) in Pittsburgh,” Gailey said. “He gives you a lot of versatility. He can play special teams, cover kicks and return kicks. He can do a lot to help a football team win games.”

     The Bills will need the help. NFL schedule makers did the team no favors by giving them the second-toughest schedule in the league, according to opponents’ 2010 won-loss record.!

 

2011 Predicted Finish: 6-10

Quick Facts

 2010 Record: 4-12 (4th in AFC East)

Offense: 304.9 yards per game (25th in NFL); 17.7 points per game (28th)

Defense: 361.6 yards per game (24th); 26.6 points per game (28th)

Key New Additions: ILB Nick Barnett (Green Bay), DE Marcell Dareus (3rd pick overall, Alabama), QB/WR Brad Smith (New York Jets)

Notable Departures: ILB Paul Posluszny, WR Lee Evans, S Donte Whitner

Players to Keep an Eye On:

OLB Shawne Merriman – Three-time Pro Bowler had an NFL-leading 39.5 sacks in his first three seasons (2005-2007), but had just four over the last three seasons.

RB C.J. Spiller - Aside from a 95-yard kickoff return for a TD, Bills still waiting to see the big-play explosiveness that made Spiller worthy of the ninth overall pick in 2010.

OL Erik Wood – moving to his natural position of center full time this year after making a successful shift from guard at the end of 2010.

DT Kyle Williams – team’s only Pro Bowler from a year ago was rewarded with a six-year, $39 million contract extension in the offseason.

 

Games to Watch:

 Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 11, 1 pm: @Kansas City (CBS) – Season opens against the defending AFC West champs.

Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 18, 1 pm: OAKLAND (CBS) – 39th home opener at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 9, 1 pm: PHILADELPHIA (FOX) – Philly’s so-called “Dream Team” is the favorite to knock off Green Bay as the NFC’s best team.

Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 30, 4:05 pm: WASHINGTON in Toronto (FOX) – Bills are 0-3 when playing “at home” at the Rogers Centre.

Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 pm: @New England (CBS) – season finale vs. AFC’s top regular-season team in 2010.